The insight: Walmart expects to gain market share as tariffs exacerbate economic volatility, executives said at the retailer’s investor day.

• The retailer’s business has historically benefited from periods of uncertainty, CFO John David Rainey pointed out—as illustrated most recently by its share gains over the past few years.
• “Our time-tested operating model emphasizes low prices to customers, made stronger with our focus on technology and automation,” Rainey said in a company statement.

Walmart’s edge: Walmart has considerable advantages over its fellow retailers due to its size and scale.

• It has the resources needed to both handle the expense of tariffs as well as insulate consumers from those costs.
• Its market power gives it the ability to pressure suppliers into cutting prices, even when faced with government pushback.
• Roughly 60% of Walmart’s sales come from necessities like groceries, leaving it less vulnerable to shifts in discretionary spending—and better positioned to attract more affluent shoppers in search of deals.
• Its ecommerce business is also growing by leaps and bounds, thanks to investments in faster delivery, a vastly expanded marketplace assortment, and retail media revenues.

A familiar game plan: Walmart’s strategy for tariffs and economic uncertainty is very much in line with its inflation playbook. The retailer intends “to maintain flexibility to invest in price as tariffs are implemented,” it said in a Q1 investor update, which will strain profits but allow it to strengthen its value proposition to wary shoppers.

Walmart’s reaffirmation of its full-year sales and earnings outlook—which previously didn’t take tariffs into account—reflects the confidence it has in its ability to navigate the challenging landscape.

• Beyond keeping prices low—which is the company’s top priority—Walmart is investing in faster delivery to narrow the gap with Amazon and satisfy consumers’ desire for convenience. The retailer will soon be able to deliver orders in less than 3 hours to 95% of US households, Walmart US CEO John Furner said.
• It’s also following in Amazon’s footsteps with a member-exclusive sale that will take place from April 28 to May 4, which could entice more shoppers to sign up for Walmart+ and boost loyalty at a critical moment.

Our take: Walmart’s role as the largest US grocer and its focus on low prices give it an edge over Amazon, which is more vulnerable to tariffs due to its reliance on Chinese imports and sellers. Some Amazon merchants have already begun hiking prices, Pacvue president Melissa Burdick told The Information, with more likely to follow once the tariffs take full effect.

While Walmart is not immune to the economic turmoil caused by tariffs and other government policies, its strong value proposition—in terms of both price and convenience—will work in its favor in an uncertain environment.